Online Talk On ‘ Iran And The War In Gaza: Calculations And Miscalculations’

Speaker: Dr. Hamidreza Azizi

Moderator: Dr. Omair Anas

The Centre for India West Asia Dialogue recently hosted an online talk featuring Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, a Visiting Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. The event, moderated by Dr. Omair Anas, Director (Research) of CIWAD, focused on Iran’s behavior in the context of the Gaza Crisis, particularly after the October 7 attack.

Dr. Azizi highlighted the consistency in Iran’s approach to conflicts, citing its stance during the 2006 Lebanon war and the 2014 Gaza conflict. Iran’s strategy has predominantly revolved around avoiding direct involvement and instead emphasizing “Forward Defense” and “Asymmetric Deterrence.”

The prolonged nature of the October 7 conflict has introduced both risks and opportunities for Iran. While officially supporting Palestinian resistance, Iran was taken by surprise by Hamas’ attack on October 7. This event underscored the need for Iran to adapt its strategy, particularly in the face of regional rivalries and the presence of the United States.

Understanding its limitations in air power, Iran has shifted its focus to developing capabilities in drones, axis military, and cyber security. Furthermore, the death of General Suleimani and the decentralization of the axis of resistance have reshaped dynamics within the region. This decentralization aims to mitigate the risk of being targeted by the US presence.

Additionally, Iranian support for Palestinian resistance has extended beyond direct involvement, with backing from Iraqi militias and the Houthis targeting the Red Sea, thereby globalizing the conflict.

The insights shared by Dr. Azizi shed light on Iran’s evolving approach to regional conflicts and its strategic considerations amidst complex geopolitical dynamics.

Overall, the event provided valuable perspectives on Iran’s role in the Gaza Crisis and its broader implications for the region.

Dr. Hamidreza Azizi, a Visiting Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin